Per Pollster.com and, to a degree, Fivethirtyeight.com these are the latest Swing and Lean States:
Toss Up:
Montana
North Dakota
Missouri
Indiana
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Lean Obama:
Nevada
Colorado
Ohio
Virgina
Lean McCain:
South Dakota
Arizona
Throw some baseless speculation into the comments thread.
My Bet
ReplyDeleteObama wins Kerry States plus
iowa
New Mexico
Coloarado
Virgina
Florida
Nevada
that comes out to 318-220
as a side bet: Indiana is to close to call but mccain wins by less then 10,000 votes
Toss Up:
ReplyDeleteMontana - McCain
North Dakota - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Indiana - Too Close to Call (4,000 vote difference or less)
North Carolina - Obama (Black Vote)
Georgia - McCain
Florida - Obama (Latino Vote)
Lean Obama:
Nevada - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Ohio - McCain (No Latino Vote. Just Too Damn White)
Virgina - Obama
Lean McCain:
South Dakota - McCain
Arizona - Obama (Because I want McCain to Suffer)
Ok, I'll go in on this.
ReplyDeleteMy Bet
Obama wins Kerry States +
Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Nevada
North Carolina
Side Bet
Dems pick up senate seats in
North Carolina
Alaska
New Mexico
Colorado
Virginia
New Hampshire
Oregon
Minnesota
My bets here are being a bit optimistic, just for fun - and because Mike took almost the most pessimistic route available. Granted, I could have gone in for Mike's picks - Florida (a real possibility) but that seemed BOOORING
ReplyDeleteI really don't think Obama will win Ohio. I know he's up in the polls there but I don't think the youth and minority vote is significant enough to overcome the "He's a Muslim" McCain voters. I think it will be close, though. But in the end Ohio is going to McCain.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the 2004 Map you can see that a lot has changed. A LOT has changed. But gut says Ohio is going to Obama.
I've also been freaked out for the past week or so that McCain is going to win this. So that's playing into it as well.
And i'd like to know what the fuck happened in Missouri. Bush won there 53-46 in '04
ReplyDeleteBush won Indiana 60% to 39%. Right now the polls are 47.5% to 47% favoring McCain.
ReplyDeleteThat's Insane!
for maths sake: Jay's bet puts the EV Count at 339 to 199
ReplyDeleteandy is at 298 to 240
My bet:
ReplyDeleteMcCain takes MO, IN, GA, ND, MT, and NC by a combined margin of less than 500,000 votes.
Obama takes OH, VA and FL by more than 250,000 votes, but less than 500,000.
Franken beats Coleman by less than 12,000 votes.
JP's electoral count is 338 - 200
ReplyDeleteGood news is that the Redskins lost last night so it's all over for McCain...
ReplyDeletekyle, what does football have to do with elections? other then everyone in BG is from western PA and therefore steelers = god
ReplyDeletefivethirtyeight.com:
ReplyDeleteObama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes.
Of the Toss Up States:
ReplyDeleteMontana: McCain
North Dakota: McCain
Missouri: McCain
Indiana: McCain (with some misplaced Obama votes)
North Carolina: Obama
Georgia: McCain
Florida: Obama
oh, and Ohio will totally go McCain
ReplyDeleteSince the Washington Redskins have become the Washington Redskins, the last home game in election years of the Redskins has picked the Winner in the presidential election every single time since 1936, except for this past election in '04. If the Redskins win said the game, the incumbent party remains in power, if they lose the incumbent too will lose. Sure there has been one hiccup ('04) but 17/18 correct picks is pretty damn good.
ReplyDelete