tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post7090998889791102142..comments2024-01-03T06:15:15.919-05:00Comments on Everyone Is a Sith: Diablo 3 Crafting: Inefficient and StupidUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-31158002914832961052012-07-12T02:37:52.130-04:002012-07-12T02:37:52.130-04:00"Wait, fuck this game entirely."
Yeah.
..."Wait, fuck this game entirely."<br /><br />Yeah.<br /><br />Right now I'm at the point where...ok...<br /><br />You know how in sitcoms when a parent finds their kid smoking they force them to smoke a carton, and the resulting pain and sickness makes the child never smoke again?<br /><br />I'm the kid. Diablo 3 is smoking. And I'm closing in on the "Daddy, can I stop now?" point.<br /><br />Which is really good timing, since I have to go to a conference next week and won't be able to play.<br /><br /><br />I've said to a couple friends that Diablo 3 may be what makes me stop being a gamer.<br /><br />That seems more likely the longer I play this fucking train wreck of stupid._J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-1481710394805653582012-07-11T14:31:02.992-04:002012-07-11T14:31:02.992-04:00It seems to me that MA17's analysis is spot on...It seems to me that MA17's analysis is spot on, although, I find myself drawn to the concept his alter ego threw out: "Wait, fuck this game entirely."Calebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05682658659259701333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-82385406031311640892012-07-11T07:30:55.672-04:002012-07-11T07:30:55.672-04:00Also, the sampling may not be necessary if it'...Also, the sampling may not be necessary if it's possible to know the probabilities determining which valuable stats will be on your crafted item, and can get reasonably accurate data on what items with those stats are going for at the time you're crafting. <br /><br />Might not hurt to be crafting a variety of items in case pants happen to be in high demand for some reason.MA17https://www.blogger.com/profile/01129159110171889408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-46746740600155652232012-07-11T07:21:10.990-04:002012-07-11T07:21:10.990-04:00That was me, just typing from a different account ...That was me, just typing from a different account and getting unexpectedly different results.<br /><br />I agree that handling capital expenses isn't necessary if you're trying to answer the question "have I made a profit from crafting?"<br /><br />However, to build on Kyle's point about the small sample size, if you want to answer the question "Is it possible to make a profit from crafting?", then there's more that needs to be done. More items need to be crafted, and capital needs to be separated from operational expenses.<br /><br />The basic idea is that you need to determine how much gold it costs to craft one item (not including pattern and BS leveling). You have fixed overhead in the form of the BS fee (42,416G), which will (I assume) only change via patch from Blizzard. Then you have variable overhead in the form of mat prices. It cost you something like 39,280G in mat costs in your example, bringing your total gold cost for one crafted item to 81,696G. Fixed/Variable difference is relevant because judging from your expenses column, it looks like your mat cost has varied by as much as 5,000K. When we start looking for ways to make crafting profitable, controlling your variable overhead will be pretty important, so it must be evaluated separately to be useful.<br /><br />At this point we know what crafting costs and that we have to charge more than that cost in order to make any profit. What we don't know is how much we need.<br /><br />For something like this, we should look at your defective rate next. This is the number of items you discard versus the number you sell. As you show, 5 items sold out of 38, meaning you sell only 13.16%, or 1 out of every 7.6 crafted. That means you have to make, on average, enough gold to offset the cost not only of the item you're selling, but of the 6.6 you're not. That works out to roughly 621K gold(81,696G * 7.6 = 620,890G) in order to approximately break even on a successful item sale, on average. To make profit, you have to charge even more. You're running between 127,500G and 1,020,000G here across 5 sales, averaging 382,500G per sale. Compared to the 620,890G you need to average, you're not profitable and you never will be, based on the available data.<br /><br />Which is why a larger sample size will be useful here. It will give you a more accurate picture of your defective rate, and allow you to determine if your sales even have the POTENTIAL to be profitable, which ultimately means you have recouped the capital expense of the pattern and the BS leveling.<br /><br />As it stands, you're absolutely right, what you've done has not been profitable, nor does it seem that it will ever be. However, if you can find ways to get better rates on mat, improve your defective rate, salvage your scrap (sell for cheap, recycle into mat? not sure what would be best there), and then calcuate based on a larger sample size to see if crafting can be profitable.MA17https://www.blogger.com/profile/01129159110171889408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-9251002914898671052012-07-11T06:50:41.135-04:002012-07-11T06:50:41.135-04:00I'd recommend leaving opportunity costs not di...I'd recommend leaving opportunity costs not directly related to playing Diablo out of this, because I don't know of any way that it would not instantly end the conversation with "wait, fuck this game entirely".Purihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14927081552123748709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-51591906879246914292012-07-10T22:42:14.214-04:002012-07-10T22:42:14.214-04:00But wouldn't that $295.80 be nothing compared ...But wouldn't that $295.80 be nothing compared to, for instance, a $50,000 10 month contract teaching at a selective liberal arts college, which you would have a real chance of acquiring once you pass your prelims and successfully defend a dissertation?Calebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05682658659259701333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-31515050029593565122012-07-10T16:29:11.122-04:002012-07-10T16:29:11.122-04:00"Its a set of mini games that have no pay off..."<i>Its a set of mini games that have no pay off.</i>"<br /><br />I've made $295.80 so far.<br /><br />That's a payoff.<br /><br />Or, it's more of a payoff than I ever got from WoW...or D2...or any other video game, come to think of it._J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-38160884241161132242012-07-10T14:19:09.387-04:002012-07-10T14:19:09.387-04:00Crafting is bullshit. Not saying that it isnt. It ...Crafting is bullshit. Not saying that it isnt. It can only be effective at scale - so making 100s of gloves.<br /><br />I framed this whole thing in terms of a "real economy" which diablo is not. Its a set of mini games that have no pay off.Mike Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13871170150315051078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-79479020146399469032012-07-10T13:28:26.056-04:002012-07-10T13:28:26.056-04:00Two other things to consider / talk about.
1) Wh...Two other things to consider / talk about.<br /><br />1) What constitutes an adequate sample size?<br /><br />How many pairs of gloves would I need to craft in order to discern the profitability of glove crafting? Given how random the stats are, is it even possible to generate a sufficient number of crafted items to discern profitability?<br /><br /><br />2) The definition of "good" changes.<br /><br />As the market shifts, players leave, and characters gear up the threshold of "good" changes. A month ago more of my gloves would have sold. A +50 str/vit pair of gloves with some attack speed was awesome around the time of release. Now it's shit.<br /><br />So, when we talk about sample sizes and adequate data, we also have to factor in the changing criteria for what will sell. As time goes on, less items sell, due to:<br /><br />1) Persons wanting higher numbers.<br />2) The shit market flooding.<br /><br /><br />This isn't like poker, where there is a defined heirarchy of hands that beat other hands. This is a changing market. That pair of gloves I sold for 1M last week will be maybe 500K two weeks from now.<br /><br />So that's another consideration to factor in._J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-37662377236374374752012-07-10T13:21:57.170-04:002012-07-10T13:21:57.170-04:00"They are patterns and training are an expens..."<i>They are patterns and training are an expense - just a different sort of expense. You pay for those once. The crafting supplies are a recurring cost. <br /><br />How are the different? When crafting, you want to off set to cost of supplies with each ax you make where you are paying down the cost of the training/patterns over time.</i>"<br /><br />I get that the pattern and training are a one time expense. But they are still an expense. At the end of the post, I give detailed expenses:<br /><br />Total Expenses: 4,025,503<br />Glove Crafting Expenses: 3,023,248<br />Total Sales: 1,912,500<br />Total Profit: -2,113,003<br />Crafting Mat Sell Value: 1,492,640<br /><br />The 4,025,503 includes the pattern / training. The 3,023,248 is just the crafting materials. My sales were 1,912,500. That does not cover either the crafting costs, or the crafting + training + pattern costs.<br /><br />I understand that capital expenses are treated differently for tax purposes.<br /><br />I don't know why people want me to treat them differently in Diablo.<br /><br />Because a capital expense is still an expense, just like the expense of crafting each glove._J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-23342772009617525842012-07-10T13:17:21.978-04:002012-07-10T13:17:21.978-04:00"Were there really only 5 pairs of gloves mad..."<i>Were there really only 5 pairs of gloves made, or were there trash gloves made also? If so, were those trash gloves vendored or parted out for crafting again? Did you include those assets in your final profit margins?</i>"<br /><br />Gloves made: 38<br />Gloves sold: 5<br /><br />So, 13% of my gloves sold on the AH.<br /><br />I salvaged the shit gloves in 1 essence, 1 tear. I did not include those in the price, but it would not be difficult to do so. 33 essences and tears still do not offset my losses.<br /><br />I admit that 38 gloves is a very small sample size. But, at the moment, I'm not willing to invest the gold required to increase the sample size._J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-75993693941683048802012-07-10T11:10:12.884-04:002012-07-10T11:10:12.884-04:00While I agree with your premise, this is a painful...While I agree with your premise, this is a painfully small sample size. <br /><br />Were there really only 5 pairs of gloves made, or were there trash gloves made also? If so, were those trash gloves vendored or parted out for crafting again? Did you include those assets in your final profit margins?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13095451400961707644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-92147834641246349772012-07-10T10:51:13.431-04:002012-07-10T10:51:13.431-04:00They are patterns and training are an expense - ju...They are patterns and training are an expense - just a different sort of expense. You pay for those once. The crafting supplies are a recurring cost. <br /><br />How are the different? When crafting, you want to off set to cost of supplies with each ax you make where you are paying down the cost of the training/patterns over time.Mike Lewisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-21179520085800842412012-07-10T01:04:49.521-04:002012-07-10T01:04:49.521-04:00Capital expenditure:
"For tax purposes, CAPE...<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_expenditure" rel="nofollow">Capital expenditure</a>:<br /><br />"For tax purposes, CAPEX is a cost which cannot be deducted in the year in which it is paid or incurred and must be capitalized. The general rule is that if the acquired property's useful life is longer than the taxable year, then the cost must be capitalized. The capital expenditure costs are then amortized or depreciated over the life of the asset in question."<br /><br />Yeah, I don't think that applies to Diablo._J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-14154306927967512972012-07-10T00:59:16.911-04:002012-07-10T00:59:16.911-04:00"if d3 were a true economic system then train..."<i>if d3 were a true economic system then training and patterns are have to be placed in a second expenses column: They are capital expenses. They are a cost you have to eat in order to make a product.</i>"<br /><br />A few people have said this, and I think they're incorrect.<br /><br />I placed the pattern in the expense column. It is an expense that I hope to offset by profits.<br /><br />However, I have not yet made enough profit to pay off that initial expense.<br /><br />So, in my reckoning, it goes in the expense column with everything else.<br /><br />Why is the pattern expense supposed to be treated differently than, say, the crafting mat expense? They're both<br /><br />- gold I spend to produce gloves.<br />- expenses that my profits are supposed to overcome.<br /><br /><br />It seems like people don't want me to factor in the capital expenses...and that seems to be obviously silly.<br /><br />If I hadn't bought the pattern, or trained Blacksmithing, I'd still have that gold. So, why isn't it an expense?_J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-9697645937821579712012-07-10T00:29:21.206-04:002012-07-10T00:29:21.206-04:00Okay - so your your math is missing a step.
if d3...Okay - so your your math is missing a step.<br /><br />if d3 were a true economic system then training and patterns are have to be placed in a second expenses column: They are capital expenses. They are a cost you have to eat in order to make a product. Ford has to spend millions of dollars to build a new factory. Those are one time costs. the parts to make the car are recurring costs. you will eventual recoup the costs of the capital expense. <br /><br />Over time, the balance will change. If you have a good pattern that produces an Ax with attribute that are in a high demand - you will make back to cost of training/pattern.<br /><br />But as you and everyone else has shown - d3 does not have a true economic system. there is an unlimited supply of gold and crafting supplies.Mike Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13871170150315051078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-73245840893328353432012-07-09T17:28:12.258-04:002012-07-09T17:28:12.258-04:00Patterns are a one time cost. Obtain the pattern,...Patterns are a one time cost. Obtain the pattern, teach it to your artisan, done._J_https://www.blogger.com/profile/03761591852824457348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5472929943767602697.post-8392369623874071952012-07-09T08:05:33.841-04:002012-07-09T08:05:33.841-04:00Are patterns one time costs or recurring?Are patterns one time costs or recurring?Mike Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13871170150315051078noreply@blogger.com